Long-Term Unemployment in the Mid-Valley

October 15, 2026

Long term unemployment offers insight into the experienced difficulty of finding work when unemployed. “Long term” is defined here as being unemployed for 27 weeks or more, meaning they have been available and looking for work for over six months. Since 2006, the percent of unemployed people who have been looking for work for 27+ weeks has spiked twice, once in 2008 and again in 2020. Both were periods of economic recession. 

What is interesting though is how different the spikes look. In 2008, the percent of long-term unemployment rose quickly, peaking in 2010, then began dropping slowly throughout the Mid-Valley, with a short jump in 2012. By 2013, the percent of long-term unemployment, or percent of people who could not find work after looking for 27+ weeks, declined consistently until 2016. The percent of long-term unemployed rose the fastest and peaked the highest (51%) in Linn County; the lowest peak in 2010 was in Polk County (38%). Linn and Polk counties sat at the highest and lowest levels of long-term unemployed before the 2008 recession, but that difference grew during the peak years of the recession. In other words, during normal economic times Linn County has a slightly higher percentage of people who struggle to find work for long periods of time, but during the 2008 recession, that percentage grew much faster for Linn County and reached much higher levels of people struggling to find work long periods of time, specifically over six months. 

Marion and Yamhill counties grew very closely, mirroring each other until 2010. Where Yamhill County’s percentage of long-term unemployed began a smoother descent, plateauing shortly in 2012, Marion County descended much slower before a short spike in 2012. In 2013, Marion County joined Yamhill County on a consistent decline and slightly closed the gap between the counties. 

By 2016, all four counties in the Mid-Valley had recovered the jobs lost in the 2008 recession. Between 2016 and 2020 each county’s percent of long-term unemployed grew and fell a few times but never reached pre-2008 levels, with the lowest levels in 2018 still falling a few percentage points higher than levels in 2007.  We could understand the period between 2016 and 2020 to be the ‘new normal’ following the 2008 recession. Economic recovery, with respect to people who are available and looking for work being able to find employment, took nearly eight years. 

The spike in 2020 follows its own distinct pattern. The percent of long-term unemployed people rose quickly in 2020, peaked in 2021, and by 2022 levels mirrored pre-pandemic times, and for Polk County, the percent of long-term unemployed was lower in 2022 than in 2018. 

Unfortunately, the speedy recovery did not last in any of the four regions. Since 2022, the percent of long-term unemployed has been increasing. The percent of long-term unemployed in 2025 is significantly below recessionary levels for all four counties, and is pretty similar to levels in 2014 and 2015. 

The progression of the long-term unemployment experience after the 2020 recession looks very different from the period after the 2008 recession. We have the advantage of examining the eight-year span it took for the percent of long-term unemployed people to stabilize. We can apply our understanding of the 2008 recession to what we are experiencing now, even if the percent of long-term unemployed already touched pre-recession levels in 2022, we may still be moving through the larger recovery picture.