Oregon Jobs Projected to Increase 8% by 2033
December 17, 2024Oregon’s total employment will grow by 170,000 jobs between 2023 and 2033, according to new projections from the Oregon Employment Department. Employment growth reflects structural growth in the economy, as total payroll employment had recovered from pandemic losses by 2023. Many additional job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupations.
In 2023, there were 2,186,100 jobs in Oregon. The projected 8% increase in employment between 2023 and 2033 includes private-sector gains of 150,500 jobs, growth of 10,700 jobs in government, and an additional 8,800 self-employed Oregonians.
Fastest-Growing Sectors
All broad sectors in Oregon are expected to add jobs by 2033 except for federal government which is projected to decline by 1% (-200 jobs). The private health care and social assistance and construction sectors are projected to increase the fastest, gaining 13% each. Private health care and social assistance is also projected to add the largest number of jobs over the next 10 years (+37,200 jobs). This growth is attributed to the aging of the state’s population, longer life expectancies, and an expected rebound in the state’s long-term population growth.
Within health care and social assistance, ambulatory health care services (17%), such as doctor and dentist offices, chiropractors, physical and speech therapists, and other specialist and nursing and residential care facilities (14%) are projected to grow faster than private health care and social assistance as whole.
Growth in the construction sector (13% or +15,400 jobs) can be attributed to strong projected growth in the specialty trades industry (15%). This industry includes establishments that perform specific construction-related activities such as site preparation, plumbing, painting, and electrical work.
While the economy as a whole had more jobs in 2023 compared with its 2019 peak prior to the pandemic recession, the leisure and hospitality sector still has room to recover. Relatively fast growth in the leisure and hospitality sector (11%) is driven by continued recovery from the pandemic recession, as more normal conditions resume for restaurants, hotels, and arts, cultural, and recreational establishments. Leisure and hospitality lost 51,700 jobs in 2020 relative to 2019. In 2023, leisure and hospitality was still 7,000 jobs short of its 2019 level, so three out of 10 jobs (30%) added over the decade will be due to recovering lost jobs.
Private educational services (12%) and the information sector (11%) are also projected to grow faster than the economy as a whole from 2023 to 2033.
Peak Employment
While overall employment in many sectors is expected to grow beyond their peak levels, manufacturing and financial activities will fall short of their peak employment levels by 2033. Manufacturing employment is expected to grow by 6% to 201,400 jobs. That's below its most recent peak of 207,300 jobs in 2006. Its all-time high was 228,600 jobs in 1998. In 2020, manufacturing lost 6% of its jobs (-12,700 jobs). Financial activities is expected to grow by 2% over the next decade to 105,800 jobs. The sector peaked at 106,600 jobs in 2006.
The manufacturing sector consists of industries growing in notably different ways. Some smaller components of manufacturing – such as machinery manufacturing (14%), primary metal manufacturing (11%), and fabricated metal product manufacturing (11%) – show higher projected growth rates. In 2020, primary metal manufacturing lost 17% of its jobs (-1,600 jobs). Meanwhile, paper manufacturing (-15%), fruit and vegetable preserving (-7%), and sawmills and wood preservation (-3%) show projected declines by 2033. Paper manufacturing, sawmills, and wood preservation experienced stable employment in 2020. Paper manufacturing includes pulp, paper, and paperboard mills and converted paper product manufacturing.
Declining Industries
Several industry groups with the biggest projected losses relate to news media, production and distribution of various paper-related products, and retail trade. These include newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishers (-29%); business support services (-28%); pulp, paper, and paperboard mills (-28%); and electronics and appliance stores (-23%).
Government
Projections show relatively modest growth in most broad areas of government. State government is expected to grow by 5% and local government is expected to grow by 3%. Employment in federal government is projected to decline slightly over the decade with a loss of 200 jobs (-1%).
All Industries Need Workers
Whether growing rapidly or showing a net loss of jobs by 2033, all broad industries provide employment opportunities to Oregonians. The demand is clear in some industries. Slower growing sectors and declining industries still offer many job opportunities though, as there is a need to replace retiring workers or others leaving the industry.
More information on 2023-2033 industry and occupational projections for Oregon and sub-state areas can be found at QualityInfo.org/projections.