Lane County Jobs Projected to Increase 7% by 2033

March 18, 2025

Lane County’s total employment will grow by 13,000 jobs (7%) between 2023 and 2033, according to new projections from the Oregon Employment Department. The projections are primarily due to structural job growth in the economy as most industries had largely recovered from losses during the COVID-19 recession by 2023. In addition, many job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupations.

In 2023, there were 174,000 jobs in Lane County. The 7% increase in employment between 2023 and 2033 includes private-sector gains of 11,200 jobs, 1,000 jobs in government, and an additional 800 job gain in self-employed Lane County residents.

Almost All Industries Add Jobs

All major industry sectors are expected to add jobs except federal government, which has no change over the 10-year period. Private education and health services is projected to add the most jobs. The projected 3,700 jobs (13%) in this sector are attributed mostly to longer life expectancies, and a rebound in population growth. In addition, Lane County has become a regional health care center, serving people from outside the county. Health care alone will account for over one out of five new jobs created by 2033.

Leisure and hospitality is expected to add the second-largest number of jobs (1,900). Its relatively fast growth (11%) is driven mostly by structural growth and partly by a continued rebound from the COVID-19 recession as conditions continue to improve for restaurants, hotels, and the arts and recreational establishments. Leisure and hospitality lost 3,900 jobs between 2019 and 2020. By 2023 it was still down 600 jobs.

Professional and business services is a large sector expected to add 1,500 jobs, or 9% over the ten-year period. Architectural and engineering services, which are tied to expected construction growth, contributes to some of the growth. Additional growth is added by computer and systems design through demand for cybersecurity and telecommuting. These gains will be countered somewhat by losses in business services, especially temporary firms and call centers.

Construction is a smaller industry that is expected to grow the fastest (14%), adding 1,100 jobs by 2033.

Peak Employment

While overall employment and jobs in many sectors are expected to grow beyond their recent peak levels, some sectors will fall short of their peak employment by 2033. Manufacturing employment is expected to grow by 8% to 15,700 jobs. That is well below its most recent peak of 20,300 jobs in 2006.

The information sector is projected to add 100 jobs and grow to 2,000, about 2,000 jobs below its last peak in 2007.

Both of these below-peak sectors consist of different component industries growing in notably different ways. Some components of manufacturing – such as overall nondurable goods (7%) – show higher projected growth rates. Meanwhile, wood product manufacturing (3%) is projected to have net growth of only 100 by 2033.

In the information sector, growth in the software publishing industry will be countered by losses in print publishing and media.

Government

Projections show relatively modest growth in government (3%). Federal government is expected to have no change. State government is expected to add 100 jobs (4%). Local government will add 900 jobs (3%).

All Industries Need Workers

Whether growing rapidly or showing no gain by 2033, all broad industries provide employment opportunities. Job openings will be created due to the need to replace workers who retire, leave the labor force for other reasons, or make a major occupational change.

More information on 2023-2033 industry and occupational projections for Oregon and sub-state areas can be found at QualityInfo.org/projections.