Internal Revenue Service Migration Data Show Positive Trends at the South Coast
July 15, 2024The 2021-2022 migration patterns were recently released by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Migration data for the United States are based on year-to-year address changes reported on individual income tax returns filed with the IRS. They present migration patterns by state or by county for the entire United States and are available for inflows – the number of new residents who moved to a state or county and where they migrated from, and outflows – the number of residents leaving a state or county and where they went.
These migration patterns show the number of returns and exemptions (a good proxy for people) that filed their federal taxes in a different county from the previous year. Not only can this data help show the volume of migrants into or out of the South Coast, but it also reveals the county of origin for those moving here. On the other hand, we can also track where folks move to when they file their taxes with a different address than their prior year’s tax return.
Between 2021 and 2022 Oregon had 115,122 individuals out-migrate from Oregon and 108,226 migrate to Oregon, for a net loss of -6,896. Net migration was positive in Coos County in 2021 and again in 2022. The county gained about 300 exemptions from 2020 to 2021, and another 503 between 2021 and 2022. In other words, over the most recent year available there were 3,182 exemptions that migrated to Coos County and 2,679 exemptions who migrated out, for a net migration gain of 503 exemptions or people.
Of the 3,182 who migrated to Coos County, 1,939 came from a different state and 1,243 came from a different county in Oregon. Among the 2,679 who migrated out of Coos County, 1,440 left for a different state and 1,239 migrated to a different county in Oregon.
Population estimates from Portland State University Population Research Center and the Census Bureau differ slightly from the IRS estimate. Both population estimates show a net decrease of between about 100 and 200 residents in Coos County from July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022. The IRS data, however, shows a more positive growth trend. A more precise number of residents won’t be known until the next decennial census.
There are several factors which could contribute to differences between the IRS data and other population estimates. The population estimates do not cover identical timeframes as the IRS tax year data. Additionally, not everyone who migrated to or from an area may have filed taxes during the period the IRS collects data. Late filers would be excluded from the annual IRS migration data.
Net migration remained slightly positive in Curry County in 2022. The county netted 78 exemptions from 2021 to 2022, down slightly from 325 a year earlier. In other words, in 2022 there were 1,431 exemptions that migrated to Josephine County and 1,353 exemptions who migrated out of Curry County, for a net migration gain of 78 exemptions or people. Of the 1,431 who migrated to Josephine County, 984 came from a different state and 447 came from a different county in Oregon. Among the 1,353 who migrated out of Curry County, 822 left for a different state and 531 migrated to a different county in Oregon.
Population estimates from Portland State University Population Research Center show net gain of 185 residents in Curry County from July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022 – trending slightly stronger than the Census estimates. Census Bureau shows a population loss of 106 in Curry County between 2021 and 2022. The most recent IRS data seems to bolster the slight population gain story.
The top in-migration counties into Coos County include a majority coming from Oregon counties, but a number from California counties including Los Angeles, San Diego, and Sacramento County. There were a good number that moved from Douglas (+182) and Lane (+124) counties from 2021 to 2022. California had 121 exemptions/ people migrate to Coos County between 2021 and 2022 among the counties where data are available.
Coos County saw the most people out-migrate to Lane, (-247), Douglas (-226), Jackson (-103), Curry (-67), and Multnomah County (-63).
The top in-migration into Curry County was from Jackson County, where 92 residents migrated to Curry County. Other Oregon counties where people moved to Curry County were Coos (+67), Lane (+49), and Deschutes (+31).
Looking at out-migration for Curry County, we see a similar list of counties with Coos (-93), and Jackson County (-90) toping the list of counties where Curry County residents migrated to in 2022.
We have seen faster population growth coming out of the Great Recession but that has slowed in the past few years as home prices have now spiked past pre-recession peaks. Rising interest rates in the past couple years have made it more expensive to switch homes if you are financing a residence through a mortgage. Longer-term forecasts for Oregon show a resumption of population growth through in-migration rather than natural population increase. The June 2024 Economic and Revenue Forecast from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis notes “The annual net migration was negative between 2020 and 2021 and is expected to recover after 2024. Between 2023 and 2033 net migration is expected to be in the range of 22,302 to 34,280, averaging 30,260 persons annually with net migration rate ranging between 5.18 to 7.57 per thousand population. On the other hand, if these migration trends remained suppressed, we may see something more like the zero migration scenario that is hypothesized here in the December Economic and Revenue Forecast, beginning on page 12.
A Few Notes About IRS Migration Data
The data are available for Filing Years 1991 through 2022 and include:
- Number of returns filed, which approximates the number of households that migrated
- Number of personal exemptions claimed, which approximates the number of individuals
- Total adjusted gross income, starting with Filing Year 1995
- Aggregate migration flows at the State level, by the size of adjusted gross income (AGI) and age of the primary taxpayer, starting with Filing Year 2011.
IRS Statistics of Income’s migration data for the United States are based on year-to-year address changes reported on individual income tax returns filed with the IRS. They present migration patterns by State and county and are available for inflows the number of new residents who moved to a State or county and where they migrated from, and outflows – the number of residents leaving a State or county and where they went. The data also include tabulations on the number of nonmigrant returns within a State and county. Data do not represent the full U.S. population because many individuals are not required to file an individual income tax return.
Changes to the Migration Data Disclosure Protection Procedures
The State totals and header rows were removed from all county files. State totals can now only be obtained from the State files. Counts below 20 at the county level will now be deleted. Previously, counts below 20 were moved to a similar category in another county within the State. Data will be removed from the state files only if the counts are below a threshold of 10 returns. Records may be removed at the county level that are not removed at the state level. As such, the county totals may not add to the state totals. From more information and to download the data, go to https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data.