Portland Tri-County Jobs Projected to Increase 6% by 2034

January 10, 2026

The Portland Tri-County area (Clackamas, Multnomah, Washington counties) is expected to add 77,400 jobs between 2024 and 2034, according to new projections from the Oregon Employment Department. This represents a 7% increase; faster than the U.S. (3%) and Oregon (6%) yet slower than past 10-year growth rates. This more moderate forecast reflects both demographic trends – such as an aging population and slower population growth – as well as our expectation that past growth is unsustainable, and that the region’s economic performance will more closely align with the U.S. going forward. All broad sectors in the Tri-County region are expected to add jobs by 2034, with the vast majority (90%) in the private sector. 

• Private health care and social assistance is projected to increase most rapidly, growing by 13%. It is also projected to add the largest number of jobs (+20,900). The health care component will have the strongest growth (14%), driven by an aging population; longer life expectancies; and an expected – although partial – rebound in population growth. 
• Professional and business services will grow by 11%. Two-thirds of the 17,500 new jobs will be in the professional and technical services component, which includes engineering, consulting, and computer systems design firms. Growth will be driven in part by demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-based systems, data processing, research services, and associated consulting services.
• Construction will be the third-fastest growing industry (11%). Ten-year growth rates have averaged well into the double-digits in recent decades, however we don’t expect the same explosiveness going forward. Slowing population growth; an aging population; the current lull in multifamily (which could persist for several years); and excess office space in downtown Portland will temper growth for the foreseeable future.
• Leisure and hospitality will grow by 10%; faster than the overall economy yet barely surpassing pre-pandemic peak employment (+1,100 jobs; 1%). Post-pandemic trends will continue to impact this sector going forward: dining establishments have shifted to lower staffing levels through the use of kiosks, counter service, and QR code ordering. Although some businesses are calling workers back to the office, remote work is still common and will soften demand and hamper the recovery for bars, restaurants, and fitness centers in Portland’s urban core. On the positive side, continued population growth; a new WNBA team; the Hillsboro Hops’ new stadium; a rebounding tourism industry; and several new concert venues will boost employment.
• Retail trade will continue to be impacted by the growth of e-commerce, as more people opt to shop online instead of at brick-and-mortar stores. Automation will also result in a need for relatively fewer workers. 
• Manufacturing will be among the slowest-growing broad industries (2%; 1,900 jobs). Currently this sector is in a jobs recession that might still be searching for bottom within the forecast period. There’s some uncertainty around the status of tariffs and CHIPS funding and their impacts on employment, clouding the crystal ball for semiconductors. This major component is down by roughly 3,000 jobs thus far in 2025, and our projected growth anticipates a recovery but not much additional growth.

More information on 2024-2034 industry and occupational projections for Oregon and sub-state areas can be found at QualityInfo.org/projections.