Unwrapping Holiday Hiring

November 26, 2024

The holiday season provides retailers and package delivery companies with a much-needed end-of-year boost in sales. To respond to this increase in demand, some businesses hire extra workers, often on a temporary basis. Businesses with this kind of strong holiday employment pattern comprise “holiday hiring” industries. An industry’s “holiday buildup,” or the number of employees added during the holiday season, is a convenient way to measure holiday hiring activity.  

The 2023 Holiday Buildup

Oregon’s buildup in traditional holiday hiring industries was 8,500 in the fourth quarter of 2023, representing a 6.0% increase compared with the pre-buildup employment level in September. This was higher than the 6,900-job buildup seen in 2022. That year holiday hiring increased employment by 4.7% compared with September levels.  

Transportation and Warehousing was the Shining Star of 2023’s Holiday Hiring

Holiday hiring occurs in two broad sectors: retail trade and transportation and warehousing. Over the last decade, holiday hiring in transportation and warehousing has grown as the expansion of e-commerce increased demand for package delivery services. Holiday hiring for this sector was nearly 5,000 in 2023, more than double the 2,000-job buildup in 2013. In 2023, more than half (58%) of all holiday buildup happened in the transportation and warehousing sector.

Couriers and Messengers Deliver Largest Holiday Buildup 

Holiday buildup was especially concentrated in a few industries in 2023. Reflecting the prominence of e-commerce, private couriers and messengers had the largest buildup, adding around 3,000 jobs. Other industries with a large buildup included general merchandise retailers (2,300); warehousing and storage (1,800); clothing, clothing accessories, shoe, and jewelry retailers (970); and furniture, home, furnishings, electronics, and appliances (380).

2024’s Wish List

Holiday buildups typically lead to corresponding post-holiday employment declines as businesses adjust back to the usual pace of sales. We won’t know how this season’s holiday hiring compares with prior years until sometime in the New Year, but employment forecasts can suggest what the future might bring. The December 2024 employment forecast from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) projects Oregon’s retail trade employment to increase by 700 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2024. OEA expects transportation, warehousing, and utilities to decrease by around 100 jobs in the same period. It is important to note that these forecasts are for entire sectors, not just holiday hiring industries. Still, they suggest that this year’s holiday buildup might be smaller than last year.