Tribal Government Jobs Rebounded in 2024

January 24, 2025

Tribal government employment in Oregon has had noticeable growth and fluctuations over the past few decades. From modest beginnings in the mid-1990s, when employment was 3,200 workers, tribal government jobs in the state more than doubled by 2024, with the most recent data showing an average of around 8,530 jobs since January. This growth can be attributed in part to both the expansion of their government functions and the increasing role of tribes in economic development through various governmental and business activities.

Tribal governments, which include American Indian tribal governments and Alaska Native village governments, differ in several ways from non-tribal governments. While they manage various functions similar to those of federal, state, and local governments, they often own and operate for-profit businesses that generate funds for their respective tribes. Revenues from these enterprises promote economic development, enhance the welfare of tribal members, and support the operations of tribal governments. As a result, individuals working for tribal governments may hold positions in both traditional government roles and jobs typically associated with the private sector, spanning industries from public administration to leisure and hospitality.

Tribal government employment in Oregon averaged around 6,900 jobs in 2000, but growth was slow in the early 2000s, especially compared with the strong growth of the 90s. By the mid-2000s, employment is this sector began to show a more consistent upward trajectory. From 2004 to 2008, employment gradually increased. Tribes in Oregon began to operate more businesses, both for-profit and nonprofit, diversifying their revenue sources and creating more employment opportunities. By 2008, employment peaked with an average of 8,500 jobs that year, marking a significant milestone in employment within Oregon’s tribal governments. 

However, the global financial crisis of 2008 brought some temporary setbacks. In 2009, employment dipped to an average of 8,300 jobs. This decline was part of a broader economic slowdown, as many tribal businesses, particularly those in the gaming and tourism sectors, felt the impact of reduced consumer spending. Nevertheless, employment recovered relatively quickly, with tribal governments averaging 8,600 jobs by the next year and reaching another employment milestone in 2012 when jobs averaged 8,800. 

In fact, tribal employment had consistently trended upward until July 2012, when it reached an all-time high of 9,200 jobs. However, July 2012 marked the beginning of a gradual downward trend with a period of stagnation between 2015 and 2018, when average employment remained largely unchanged for tribal governments. This downward trend would continue into the COVID-19 pandemic recession. By then, their average annual employment had dropped to 7,600 jobs – a level not seen since 2004. The most significant and extreme decrease occurred during the pandemic recession, with tribal employment falling from 8,000 in March 2020 to 7,200 within the span of a month. 

The pandemic downturn lasted longer than in 2008. Tribal governments did not fully return to pre-pandemic employment levels (8,100 jobs in 2019) until 2023, when average annual employment hit 8,200. As of this October though, average employment is on track to recover to 2013 levels.

While employment has only recently begun to rise, an interesting trend has emerged: its behavior has become less chaotic. In other words, employment gains and losses are reacting less dramatically to fluctuations in the business cycle. By plotting monthly employment over time, we can observe the peaks and troughs, and see how, in the years leading up to March 2020, the magnitude of seasonal fluctuations began to decrease. Since then, while employment has started to recover, the extent of the cyclical changes has continued to diminish, showing a less pronounced seasonal pattern and less sensitivity to the business cycle.

This trend may be partly attributed to the increase in the number of businesses across sectors during this period. As businesses grew across industries, the economy became more diversified, with a broader range of sectors and businesses contributing to employment. This reduced reliance on a few key companies or industries, creating a more balanced economy and helping to lessen the overall cyclical volatility in employment. For example, if a sector or business more susceptible to the business cycle or seasonal fluctuations faces a downturn, other industries or firms less affected may remain stable or even grow, ultimately reducing the business cycle's impact on employment and increasing the overall resilience of the economy. 

A look at the composition of business units by industry over the last decade highlights this shift. In 2013, approximately 3% of all establishments were in public administration, followed by 20% in leisure and hospitality, 9% in health care and social assistance, and 6% in manufacturing. By 2023, the distribution had changed: the share of businesses in public administration decreased slightly, while the proportion in professional, scientific, and technical services surged from 6% to 19%. At the same time, the share of businesses in leisure and hospitality dropped to 10%, and health care and social assistance fell to 7%. The share of businesses in industries that are typically less cyclical and more adaptable to economic changes has increased. Industries like public administration and professional, scientific, and technical services tend to be more resilient to seasonal fluctuations or downturns compared with sectors like leisure and hospitality, which are more sensitive to consumer spending and seasonal trends. 

This shift toward more stable and diverse industries might help explain the reduced cyclical volatility in employment, as tribal government employment and the economy becomes less dependent on a few industries and employers and more balanced overall. Although growth has not been linear, with periods of decline, the long-term trajectory points to continued expansion – both in employment numbers and the diversity of industries and firms within tribal governments.