Lane County Jobs Projected to Increase 10% by 2032
February 15, 2024Lane County’s total employment will grow by 16,800 jobs between 2022 and 2032, according to new projections from the Oregon Employment Department. The projections are primarily due to structural job growth in the economy as most industries had largely recovered from losses during the COVID-19 recession by 2022. In addition, many job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupations.
In 2022, there were 172,100 jobs in Lane County. The 10% increase in employment between 2022 and 2032 includes private-sector gains of 14,200 jobs, 1,600 jobs in government, and an additional 1,000 job gain in self-employed Lane County residents.
Almost All Industries Add Jobs
All major industry sectors are expected to add jobs except federal government, which has no change over the 10-year period. Private education and health services is projected to increase the fastest and add the most jobs. The projected 4,400 job gain (16% growth) in this sector is attributed mostly to the aging of the county’s population, longer life expectancies, and a rebound in population growth. In addition, Lane County has become a regional health care center, serving people from outside the county. Health care alone will account for more than one out of five new jobs created by 2032.
Leisure and hospitality is expected to add the second-largest number of jobs (2,600). Its relatively fast growth (15%) is driven partly by a rebound from the COVID-19 recession as conditions continue to improve for restaurants, hotels, and the arts and recreational establishments. Leisure and hospitality lost 3,900 jobs between 2019 and 2020. By 2022 it was still down 900 jobs.
Professional and business services is a large sector expected to add 2,100 jobs, or 12% over the 10-year period. Architectural and engineering services, which are tied to expected construction growth, contributes to some of the growth. Additional growth is added by computer and systems design through demand for cybersecurity and telecommuting. These gains will be countered somewhat by losses in business services, especially call centers.
Information (15%) and construction (14%) are smaller industries that are expected to grow faster than total employment from 2022 to 2032.
Peak Employment
While overall employment and jobs in many sectors are expected to grow beyond their recent peak levels, some sectors will fall short of their peak employment by 2032. Manufacturing employment is expected to grow by 8% to 15,700 jobs. That is well below its most recent peak of 20,300 jobs in 2006.
The information sector is projected to add 300 jobs and grow to 2,300, about 1,700 jobs below its last peak in 2007.
Both of these below-peak sectors consist of different component industries growing in notably different ways. Some components of manufacturing – such as overall nondurable goods (8%) – show higher projected growth rates. Meanwhile, wood product manufacturing (0%) is projected to have no net growth by 2032.
In the information sector, growth in the software publishing industry will be countered by losses in print publishing and media.
Government
Projections show relatively modest growth in government (6%). Federal government is expected to have no change. State government is expected to add 100 jobs (6%). Local government will add 1,800 jobs (6%) from gains in education as local schools, including the University of Oregon, continue to recover from COVID-19 losses. In addition, noneducation local government employment grows from administration of federal and state funds.
All Industries Need Workers
Beyond gains associated with structural growth and some recovery from the COVID-19 recession, all broad industry sectors will provide employment opportunities. Many job openings will be created by 2032 due to the need to replace workers who retire, leave the labor force for other reasons, or make a major occupational change.
More information on 2022-2032 industry and occupational projections for Oregon and sub-state areas can be found at QualityInfo.org/projections.