Central Oregon’s Labor Market: Health Care Leads the Way as Growth Slows
September 24, 2025Central Oregon’s labor market is at an interesting point in its cycle. After revisions, regional total nonfarm employment gains over the past year were found to be slightly weaker than originally thought. While the difference is not large, it does reinforce what we have seen in recent months: the pace of job growth has slowed, both statewide and locally. Even so, Central Oregon continues to perform slightly better than Oregon overall – a modest but important distinction as employers and jobseekers adjust to changing conditions.
The broader job market has cooled. Private-sector employers are more cautious, and hiring is no longer as brisk as it was in the immediate recovery period following the pandemic. Some industries have weathered this environment better than others. Retail trade, for instance, has softened, with Deschutes County losing the most positions over the past year. Trade, transportation, and utilities as a whole has not kept pace with the growth we see elsewhere. In contrast, manufacturing has managed steady gains since the beginning of 2024 and construction continues to show resilience in Crook and Jefferson counties. Similarly, employment in leisure and hospitality has been slowly increasing since the start of the year; however, as of July, average employment remains 224 jobs below the level seen during the first half of last year.
Among Central Oregon’s private industries, private education and health services and specifically health care and social assistance, which accounts for approximately 93% of employment in this industry – stands out. Together, health care and social assistance now employs over 18,000 workers in Central Oregon, up nearly 180% since 2001. By 2024 private education and health services stood more than one-third above its pre-pandemic level and accounted for 17.1% of all employment in the region, making it the second largest industry of employment, slightly behind trade, transportation, and utilities (17.4%), and ahead of leisure and hospitality (14.7%).
From 2023 to 2024 alone, regional health care added jobs at a faster pace than any other major sector, offsetting losses elsewhere. This local trend mirrors the state where health care has been one of the principal drivers of employment growth. So far this year, private education and health services has continued its long-term momentum, while trade, transportation, and utilities has lagged. As a result, as of July, there are now more private education and health services jobs than trade, transportation, and utilities jobs.
By 2033, Central Oregon is expected to add another 2,190 health care and social assistance jobs – the most of any industry with a growth rate of 13.6%, which is higher than the regional average of 8.6%. Within that, health care itself is projected to grow even faster, at nearly 14.6%. This outpaces construction (+13.5%), professional and business services (+12.6%), and leisure and hospitality (+11.7%).
In the East Cascades region, medical and health services managers are projected to grow by 34% (+161 jobs) through 2033, with similarly high percentage increases expected for physician assistants (+36%), nurse practitioners (+56%), and other frontline providers. In terms of absolute growth, however, registered nurses lead with a projected increase of 237 jobs, the highest in the region, followed closely by home health and personal care aides (+221 jobs) and medical assistants (+154 jobs). Despite these gains, replacement needs dominate future openings: even if growth slows, retirements alone will create thousands of openings that must be filled in the coming years. That said, economic uncertainty and policies that negatively affect the healthcare industry, or patients’ ability to pay for care, could slow or even halt growth. Pending these factors, however, the healthcare industry is expected to continue growing and remain one of the fastest – if not the fastest – growing industries in the region by 2033.