2025 Rogue Valley Population Estimates Show Growth Over the Year
January 06, 2026Portland State University’s (PSU) Population Research Center recently released their certified population estimates for Oregon, its counties, and incorporated cities. These data are the population estimates as of July 1. These were revised slightly from the preliminary estimates released in mid-November and were subject to public comment and review for about one month. Historically, there have not been large changes between the preliminary and final published figures.
After declining the prior four years, Jackson County population estimates show a bounce back in 2025, up by 325 new residents, or 0.1%. That gain leaves Jackson County down an estimated 1,881 residents from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2025 to reach 221,471 residents. Josephine County’s population continued gaining residents every year from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2025. The most recent annual figures show the county's population added 355 new residents, or a gain of 0.4%. Over the past five years, Josephine County’s population increased by 1,218, or up 1.4%. The county’s estimated population as of July 1, 2025 was 89,686.
Data from the Decennial Census show that Jackson County’s population in 2020 was 223,259, an increase of 20,053 residents or up by 9.9% from the 2010 Census. This was very close to the PSU intercensal figures for Jackson County published in their 2020 Population Report. In Josephine County, the 2020 Census put the county’s population at 88,090, which was about 1,500 more than what the PSU estimates showed for that year, based on the 2010 Census and subsequently estimating each year’s population over the following decade. We really don’t know the most accurate population numbers until the decennial census is published once a decade.
The other source of population estimates for years between the decennial census comes from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census Bureau estimated Jackson County’s population at 221,331 as of July 1, 2024, compared to the PSU estimated population of 221,146. PSU estimated Josephine County’s population at 89,686 and the Census Bureau estimate was 88,276, a larger discrepancy than in Jackson County’s dueling estimate figures. The Census Bureau released their 2024 county population estimates in March 2025 and will likely release their 2025 county-level population estimates in March 2026.
According to PSU population estimates, Jackson County’s population growth rate lagged the statewide trend since 2020. Since July 1, 2020, the state’s population has grown by 1.4% while Jackson County’s population decreased by -0.3%. In 2022, Oregon’s population was barely up a scant 0.1% whereas Jackson County population declined by -0.8% or -1,881 residents. The losses for the county finally reversed in 2025, but only up 0.1% or 325 residents. The state’s population rose over the year, up by 0.3% in 2025, or 14,021 residents. Josephine County’s population change from July 1, 2020 to 2025 was 1.4%, increasing by 1,218 and equaling the Oregon population growth rate.
Cities and Towns
Most city areas showed between no change or growth up to 4.3% between 2024 and 2025 in the Rogue Valley. Medford gained an estimated 1,208 new residents while Eagle Point (+325) and Central Point (+287) saw the next largest net population gains. Cities of Phoenix (+186) and Talent (+286) continued their long recovery from the devastating Almeda fire in September 2020.
| City | July 1, 2024 Population | July 1, 2025 Population | Net Change | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medford | 88,738 | 89,946 | 1,208 | 1.3% |
| Grants Pass | 40,184 | 40,380 | 196 | 0.5% |
| Central Point | 19,391 | 19,678 | 287 | 1.5% |
| Eagle Point | 9,868 | 10,193 | 325 | 3.2% |
| Talent | 6,415 | 6,701 | 286 | 4.3% |
| Phoenix | 4,414 | 4,600 | 186 | 4.0% |
| Jacksonville | 3,071 | 3,185 | 114 | 3.6% |
| Shady Cove | 3,093 | 3,096 | 3 | 0.1% |
| Rogue River | 2,443 | 2,484 | 41 | 1.7% |
| Cave Junction | 2,101 | 2,111 | 10 | 0.5% |
| Gold Hill | 1,363 | 1,363 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Butte Falls | 443 | 448 | 5 | 1.1% |
Over in Josephine County, Grants Pass had an estimated 0.5% increase, or 196 new residents. Cave Junction, the only other incorporated city in Josephine County, was little changed and had a population of 2,111. If you are wondering about other smaller communities – Wonder, O’Brien, Selma, or White City, for example – the PSU estimates only cover incorporated cities and towns. You would need to use Census Bureau estimates from the decennial census or the American Community Survey. Remember these estimates are anchored to the last decennial Census, and the previously published intercensal 2010-2020 estimates are no longer valid. PSU hasn’t yet updated those data based on the 2020 Census.
The Rogue Valley population trends and growth rates have mirrored the overall slowing that Oregon experienced in the period after the Covid pandemic. Rising deaths over births and slowing in-migration have likely had the effect of the stalling Rogue Valley’s population growth rate in recent years. Factors that may be causing slowing in the growth rate could be rising home and rental prices, lack of housing availability and low vacancy rates, and the growing trend toward slower overall migration and staying in homes longer as interest rates on home mortgages are well above their generational lows.
Much more detailed data will be available when PSU’s Population Research Center releases their annual population report for 2025 a bit later, such as population by age and components of population change.
For more information, see: https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-estimate-reports.