2023-2033 Projections Show Broad-based Employment Growth in the Mid-Valley

May 23, 2025

The Mid-Valley Workforce Area (Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill counties) will add nearly 22,000 jobs between 2023 and 2033. This represents a 7% increase in employment over 10 years. The growth stems from anticipated private-sector gains of more than 19,000 jobs (8%) and the addition of 1,500 jobs (3%) in government. This projected 7% growth rate is slower than the 23% growth seen over the past decade in the Mid-Valley. One reason for the slower 7% growth compared with the 23% growth in the prior decade is that in 2013 the Mid-Valley’s employment was not too far from the 2011 employment lows that occurred during the Great Recession. Growing from a low point in the business cycle is a big reason the Mid-Valley showed such fast employment growth from 2013 to 2023. 

Beyond gains from economic growth, an additional 353,000 job openings will be created by 2033 as workers change occupations or leave for other reasons, such as retirement. 

The 2023 to 2033 employment projections bring together several ongoing trends over the past few years as well as newer ones. A fast-growing health care sector has been taking place for a number of years, due in part to an aging population. Health care is showing slower projected growth than has been projected in recent years, but it is still projected to be one of the fastest growing sectors, with projected employment growth of 14%, twice as fast as total employment is projected to grow. Another long-term trend is public sector employment growing more slowly than private sector employment. A newer trend is fast job growth in the construction sector, which is also projected to grow 14%. 

Industry Projections

There will be job growth in all the broad private-sector industries by 2033. 

The region’s private education and health services is projected to add the most jobs (+6,200 jobs).  In addition to adding the most jobs, private education and health services will also be the second fastest growing sector, growing 13% over the decade. 

 
Within the trade, transportation, and utilities sector the fastest growth is projected within transportation, warehousing, and utilities which is projected to add 1,500 jobs or 14% growth from 2023 to 2033.  

The fastest growing sector is construction, which is projected to add 2,500 jobs or 14% growth from 2023 to 2033.

The public sector overall is expected to add 1,500 jobs or 3% growth from 2023 to 2033. State government is projected to grow 6%, adding 1,400 jobs. While local government is projected to only grow 1% or 200 jobs. Within local government, local government education employment is projected to decline -4%, losing 700 jobs. Federal government employment is also projected to decline -4%, losing 100 jobs. 

Occupational Projections

Between 2023 and 2033, there will be job openings in all occupations in the Mid-Valley. 

Economic diversity in the Mid-Valley Workforce Area is demonstrated by the two different broad occupational categories projected to have the most job openings in the region: service occupations (80,500 openings), and management, business, and financial occupations (43,00 openings). Service occupations includes jobs as varied as emergency services, pest control workers, and fast-food cooks. 

Occupations with the most job openings in the Mid-Valley, 2023-2033:

1. Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse
2. Home Health and Personal Care Aides
3. Stockers and Order Fillers
4. Personal Care and Service Workers, All Other
5. Retail Salespersons
6. Cashiers
7. Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers
8. Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
9. General and Operations Managers
10. Office Clerks, General

Health care occupations are some of the fastest growing occupations, driven in large part by the aging population. Nurse practitioners, physical therapist assistants, and physician assistants are among the fastest-growing occupations in the region. In addition, we see professional occupations such as data scientists and software developers among the fastest growing occupations over the next decade. 

Fastest growing occupations in the Mid-Valley, 2023-2033:

1. Solar Photovoltaic Installers
2. Nurse Practitioners
3. Physician Assistants
4. Physical Therapist Assistants
5. Data Scientists
6. Medical and Health Services Managers
7. Software Developers
8. Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal Caretakers
9. Ophthalmic Medical Technicians
10. Avionics Technicians

In terms of actual job counts though farmworkers, home health care aides, stockers and order fillers, personal care and service workers, and retail salespersons are the five occupations with the most job openings anticipated by 2033. These are all large occupations, and they will all experience some openings due to economic growth, but also due to the retirement or other departures of existing workers.

In addition to the 21,900 new jobs from businesses opening or expanding, the region’s employers will also need sufficiently trained workers for the 353,000 openings due to the need to replace those leaving occupations. Replacement openings will comprise a majority of job openings in all major occupational groups. 

Other Regional Projections

All areas of Oregon expect to see job opportunities due to both economic growth, and to replace workers leaving the labor force or leaving their occupation in the coming years. The two regions projected to grow at the fastest rates are the Portland area (9%) and Central Oregon (9%). The Mid-Valley’s employment is projected to grow 7%, just under Oregon’s statewide rate of 8%.