2023-2033 Industry Projections in the East Cascades
March 5, 2025A little over two months ago, the Oregon Employment Department released industry projections for 2023-2033. This data can be used as a tool for guiding job seekers toward high-growth industries and analyzing regional employment trends. It can provide insights into employment growth across industries and regions, shedding light on the sectors expected to create the most new jobs and experience the highest demand for labor. So, let’s dive into the data for our region.
In the East Cascades, total nonfarm employment is projected to grow by 13,500 jobs, reaching 187,900 by 2033. The private sector will account for much of this growth (8.9%), driven primarily by private educational and health services (13.3%), construction (12.7%), professional and business services (12.5%), and leisure and hospitality (11.4%). The growth in private educational and health services is largely fueled by increasing demand for healthcare and social assistance across both urban and rural areas. Government employment is expected to rise modestly (2.5%), while self-employment is projected to grow by 5.2% over the same period. Overall, the region is expected to see a 7.7% increase in total employment over the decade, with industry growth rates varying across its sub-regions: Columbia Gorge, Central Oregon, and South Central Oregon.
Columbia Gorge
In the Columbia Gorge sub-region (Gilliam, Hood River, Sherman, Wasco, and Wheeler counties), total employment is projected to grow at a slower 5.8% rate, adding 1,800 jobs by 2033. Construction aligns with regional trends and is expected to increase by 12% (+130 jobs), and while private educational and health services is also set to grow by 12%, it will be adding four times as many new jobs (+520 jobs). Like the broader region and the state, most new jobs in private educational and health services will come from healthcare and social assistance (+480 jobs). Professional and business services follows closely with a projected growth of 11.8% (+220 jobs), while leisure and hospitality is set to increase by 10.6% (+430 jobs) through strong arts, entertainment, recreation, and food services growth (+14%).
While the fastest-growing industries in the sub-region are also expected to generate the highest number of new job openings, the trade, transportation, and utilities sector is projected to grow more modestly at 3.5%, yet it will still add slightly more new jobs (+160) than construction. The sub-region also stands out for having the East Cascades' lowest projected growth rates in self-employment (+1.4%) and public sector employment (+1.2%, +50 jobs). Despite these slower-growing categories, the Columbia Gorge's fastest-expanding industries mirror regional trends.
Central Oregon
Central Oregon (Crook, Deschutes, and Jefferson counties) stands out as the region’s employment powerhouse, driving most of the employment growth seen in the East Cascades. The sub-region is projected to grow the fastest, with an 8.6% increase that will add nearly 9,900 new nonfarm jobs by 2033. The strongest job growth is expected in private educational and health services (13.6%, +2,350 jobs), construction (13.5%, +1,170 jobs), and professional and business services (12.6%, +1,470 new jobs). Leisure and hospitality is also expected to have strong growth (11.7%), adding more jobs (+1,870) than other higher-growth industries. Additionally, Central Oregon anticipates a slightly higher growth rate in public sector employment (+2.2%, +310 jobs) compared to the Columbia Gorge area.
South Central Oregon
South Central Oregon (Klamath and Lake counties) is projected to grow by 6.4% between 2023 and 2033, adding approximately 1,840 jobs – slightly more than the Columbia Gorge. As in the Columbia Gorge, construction is expected to have the fastest growth rate at 13.2% (+160 jobs), but private educational and health services will create more new positions, growing by 12.2% and adding 570 jobs. Within this sector, healthcare and social assistance will account for 96% of the total employment growth. Notably, South Central Oregon is the only sub-region forecasting a decline in information sector jobs (-7.1%), though this represents a modest loss of just ten jobs over the decade.
Leisure and hospitality is also forecasted to have growth in the double digits, growing by 11.4% and adding 320 jobs, with accommodation and food services comprising 91% of this growth (+290 jobs). Much like the Gorge area, self-employment is expected to rise by 2.7%, contributing an additional 50 jobs, while the public sector will grow by 3.7%, adding 230 jobs during the same period.
The Region as a Whole
Construction and healthcare and social assistance are the fastest-growing sectors across all sub-regions of the East Cascades. However, the number of new jobs created by construction (+1,400) is overshadowed by those in healthcare and social assistance (+3,300), leisure and hospitality (+2,600), and professional and business services (+1,900). Despite posting double-digit growth rates across all areas, construction ranks fifth in terms of job creation, just behind trade, transportation, and utilities — which is expected to add 1,100 jobs by 2033 (a modest 3.9% growth rate for the sector).
The majority of new construction jobs (1,170 out of 1,400) are concentrated in Central Oregon, likely reflecting ongoing development efforts tied to population growth and the housing and infrastructure investments required to support it. In contrast, government employment presents a more nuanced picture where federal employment is projected to decline across all sub-regions, while state and local government trends vary significantly.
Projected total nonfarm employment growth for this cycle is largely structural in Central Oregon, reflecting long-term expansion beyond pandemic recovery. Most pandemic-related losses have already been recovered, allowing current projections for the area to focus on post-recovery growth. By contrast, the Columbia Gorge and South Central Oregon have more industries that have not yet fully recovered, though. This means these sub-regions are still experiencing industry-level growth influenced by lingering recovery dynamics, whereas Central Oregon, with fewer unrecovered industries, is experiencing more structural growth overall. Ultimately, nearly all broad sectors in the East Cascades are projected to create new jobs over the next decade, though some will grow more rapidly than others. Even in sectors expected to lose jobs, replacement needs will continue to create opportunities for employment.